Kim Jong Un: Are North Korea’s leaders really trying to start a war?
Kim Jong Un : He says that Kim Jong Un has abandoned the idea of compromise and unification with South Korea. Instead, they are presenting North Korea and South Korea as two independent countries at war.
Robert L. Carlin, a former CIA analyst, and Siegfried S. Hecker, a nuclear scientist who has visited North Korea several times, wrote in an article on the 38 North website , “We believe that, like his father in the 1950s, Kim Jong Un made the decision to go to war. “A strategic decision has been taken.”
This announcement has created a stir in Washington and Seoul, but most analysts do not agree.
Regarding this, BBC talked to seven experts from Asia, Europe and North America and no one supported this estimate.
“It is not fair for the North Koreans to risk their entire regime in a potentially devastating conflict,” said Christopher Green of Crisis Group in the Netherlands, which tracks Korea.
He and other analysts say that North Korea wants to bring Western powers to the negotiating table and create political pressure inside the country.
But they believe that Kim Jong Un’s aggression cannot be ignored and his government has become more dangerous.
Kim Jong Un: Are North Korea’s leaders
For those who keep an eye on Kim Jong Un, his nuclear threat is not new, but some people say that Pyongyang’s latest message is of a different nature.
On the New Year, he had announced that war could break out on the Korean Peninsula at any time. Just six days later, his army fired several shells on the border .
North Korea claimed to have tested a new solid-fuel missile and an underwater attack drone that can carry nuclear weapons.
They have been launching missiles almost every month for two years and are continuing their weapons development programme, which is a flagrant violation of UN sanctions.
Since the formation of North Korea, unification has been an integral part of its ideology.
According to Peter Ward, senior researcher at Kookmin University in Seoul, “This is a huge change. “This reverses the basic ideological basis of this government.”
Kim Jong Un is abandoning his legacy now. Along with shutting down diplomatic channels and cross-border radio broadcasts, he also announced the demolition of the nine-story Unification Memorial outside Pyongyang.
The memorial was built in 2001 to commemorate the work done by his father and grandfather to achieve the goal of unification.
On Tuesday, Planet Labs satellite photos showed that this monument has been demolished, although there has been no official statement regarding this.
It was Kim II Sung who started the war in 1950, but he also had the idea that someday there would be unification of the two Korean countries.
limited attack option
Carlin and Hecker considered these things to be a sign of preparation for waging war, although most analysts disagree.
Seong-Hyeon Lean of the George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations says that the country is going to open its border to foreign tourists from next month and has sold ammunition to Russia. In such a situation, it does not seem that he is going to start a war.
Mr. Ward of Kookmin University says, “Many South Koreans may die in the war, but it will prove to be the end for Kim Jong Un and his government.”
Instead, some people are of the opinion that they should resort to limited action.
According to Ankit Panda, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “My concern is more about the limited attack on South Korea. This attack can target South Korean territory or army but it will be limited.”
It may be limited to firing or the occupation of disputed islands to the west of the Korean Peninsula.
In 2010, North Korea attacked Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Korean soldiers.
To know the reaction of South Korea, it is possible that a similar provocative step may be taken because the current President of South Korea Yoo Suk Yeol has said many times that any step taken by North Korea will be given a befitting reply.
North Korea’s old way
Seong-Hyeon Lee says, “If we look at the history of North Korea, it has adopted such provocative methods to attract the attention of other countries to gain an edge in negotiations.”
The country is facing economic sanctions and 2024 is an election year for its enemies, with presidential elections in the US and legislative elections in South Korea.
Dr. Lee Ka says that ‘This is a good opportunity for Kim Jong Un to provoke.’
The current US administration, led by Joe Biden, is stuck in Ukraine and Gaza and is not paying attention to North Korea, whereas most of the talks with Pyongyang were done by the Republican administration.
Before the obstruction in nuclear disarmament, there was a famous meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in 2019. Maybe Kim is waiting for Trump’s return.
Analysts believe that close friendship with Russia and the economic assistance received from China last year may have boosted his confidence.
It has received technical help from Russia in launching its spy satellite and the closeness between the two countries has increased.
domestic goals
Many analysts say that Kim Jong Un is trying to stabilize his hold on power.
Professor Leif-Eric Asley of Ewha University in Seoul believes that ‘this seems to be an ideological coordination to preserve power. North Korean people continue to feel that their communist country is failing compared to the South.
He says that there are reports that there is a situation of starvation in the entire country. In such difficult times, the focus is on the enemy to justify Kim’s missile spending.
Ward says “South Korea was initially a bad state with a corrupt culture that needed to be unified, and there was an emphasis on the need to free the people from their bad government.”
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“Now the continued oppression of South Korean culture can be justified by declaring the country and its culture bad.”
Last week, the BBC released rare footage showing two 12-year-old North Korean teenagers being severely punished for watching a K-drama.
“They don’t really want war,” says Sokeen Park of Liberty in North Korea, an NGO that helps North Korean refugees. This will be a bet where they will get nothing except losing everything.”
According to him, the purpose of Kim Jong Un’s threats is to strengthen the policy of North and South and to consolidate his power in the country.
Analysts say South Korea, the US and allies should be prepared for worst-case scenarios but also need to keep an eye on North Korea’s internal situation and broader geopolitics.
Dr. Lee says that the best way to find out what is going on in the minds of North Korea is to include them in the conversation.